Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.
Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***
Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last few weeks:
CA-25 – R+7,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-25 – R+4,
KY-01 – R+10,
NE-02 – R+9,
SC-01 – R+10,
VA-07 – R+11,
But one more race will have an unopposed Republican incumbent in November:
KY-05 – R+8 (our candidate is running for the Senate),
So 381 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.
But we also have 148 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.
So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 148
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 17
Districts without any candidates – 28
Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 7
The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-45 – R+3,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-49 – R+10,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CO-06 – R+10,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-12 – R+5,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-24 – R+3,
FL-25 – R+4,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-15 – R+6,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KS-01 – R+20,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
LA-06 – R+7,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-09 – R+7,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
NE-02 – R+9,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-05 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
SC-01 – R+10,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-07 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,
The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
FL-18 – R+4,
MT-AL – R+11,
The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
FL-06 – R+8,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
LA-04 – R+7,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
SC-04 – R+15,
TN-07 – R+12,
UT-03 – R+22,
The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-22 – R+16,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
ID-02 – R+19,
IN-05 – R+20,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-04 – R+5,
WA-05 – R+7.1,
WI-05 – R+12,
And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.
The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:
KY-05 – R+8
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-11 – R+25,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-21 – R+13,
Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.
It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! And then there is Kentucky where filing has finished leaving 1 vacancy. That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 8 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!
Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.
It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.
We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.
*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***
Whaddya know?
May be past the rumor stage. We have http://www.mikeboyce4congress.com. Those are my goodies for the day.
FWIW, New Mexico also has a filing deadline today. There are lots of candidates but last week’s caucus is still unsettled and a check earlier this week did not have a candidates list on the secretary of state’s site. The state Democratic Party listed multiple candidates on their site. PA seems to update several times a day on the secretary of state’s “candidates list.”
You just make it easy for me, Benawu. Thanks.
There are three districts without a single rumored Democratic candidate that have a PVI below R+5:
MI-06 – R+2.3
MI-08 – R+1.9
MI-10 – R+4
Are Fred Upton, Mike Rogers, and Candace Miller that intimidating? What is up with the MI-Dems? Are they recruiting? Michigan’s filing deadline is May 13 – three months from today. Clock’s ticking.
Democrat Jim Hunt announced he is running for Denny Rehberg’s House seat in Montana (BillingsGazette.com, Feb.12; http://www.huntforcongress.com). At this point it is unclear what kind of a Democrat Hunt is but there are many months to sort it all out.
Of course, your other “expected”, FL-18 also resulted in an announcement. So on to AL-2 where Bobby Bright is doing it in stages. Yes, he is a Democrat. Announcement to come some time after February 5.
Dave Bruderly is listed on the racetracker as having announced. But his web site is unchanged since the 2006 campaign (FL-6).
Count in the two “expected” candidates who have since declared and the number of open seats is just 44 (we got PHil Avillo filed in PA-19). And filling up.